About this Market

Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate Shanghai will experience partly to mostly clear conditions on September 21 under moderate northerly flow, supporting a daytime high near 29°C with limited cloud cover and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius. This aligns with the market’s 52.5% implied probability for 29°C and 31% for 28°C, as recent September climatology shows typical late-month maxima of 28–30°C and current short-range guidance clusters tightly in that band. Minor model spread around boundary-layer mixing and any residual moisture from prior days keeps a smaller probability mass on 30°C, while the low odds below 27°C or above 31°C reflect the absence of strong synoptic forcing or heat advection that would shift the outcome outside the narrow forecast envelope. Updated runs and observational verification over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any probability adjustment.