About this Market

Recent PAGASA forecasts and numerical model guidance indicate partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated afternoon thunderstorms across Metro Manila on September 20, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon and localized convection. These patterns typically limit daytime heating, supporting maximum temperatures of 31–33 °C, which together carry over 85% combined implied probability in the market. Recent observations show daily maxima near 31 °C under similar setups, while historical September climatology for the region averages around 30–32 °C. With the nearest tropical cyclone remaining well east of the Philippines and no significant changes expected in steering or moisture profiles before the weekend, updated PAGASA guidance and afternoon model runs on September 19 represent the key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.