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The prevailing southwest monsoon and associated cloud cover with scattered thunderstorms are the main drivers keeping trader focus on 31–33°C for Manila’s September 21 high. PAGASA outlooks and ensemble forecasts indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated convection that will limit surface heating during the day, consistent with the seasonal average high of 32°C and recent observations near 31°C. Warmer-than-usual signals for central Luzon in sub-seasonal guidance support a modest upside risk to 33°C if breaks in cloudiness allow greater insolation, while persistent rain and high humidity favor the lower side of the range. Updated model runs and the next daily PAGASA bulletin remain the key near-term inputs.